Saturday, September 28, 2013

What Jagan's bail means for AP politics

Turning criminals into demigods

The release of Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy (son of late ex-chief minister of Andhra Pradesh Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy) from Chanchalguda jail after 16 months of imprisonment was celebrated with much pomp and joy by his supporters and such like. Even the media (hype) played its part in depicting the prime accused in the disproportionate assets case as people's leader. Despite all the drama, what Jagan's release means to the state of Andhra Pradesh has become a game of Chinese whispers.

Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy 

Here's what his release means to AP:

  • YSRC Party which has, ever since May 2012 (when Jagan was arrested), lost its sense of direction will now regain its vision as its leader is out of jail. Despite Jagan's mother Vijayamma and sister Sharmila trying to keep the party going in all these months, their efforts couldn't replace Jagan's mass appeal and aura, except for the padayatras.
  • After the Congress announced the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh on July 30, Jagan has been its only hope. 
  • Why is that so? Though the party has 17 seats in the Telangana region and has managed to pacify those in Telangana with the announcement, it sure knows that it would lose a larger pie of 25 seats in the Coastal and Rayalseema regions. So, if the Congress released Jagan from languishing in jail, it could push him as a Samaikhyandhra supporter and make him win in the Seemandhra region. (Only to form an alliance with him at a later stage).
  • Where will this lead the Congress? Since Jagan propagates himself as a Samaikhyandhra supporter, he is likely to win a greater pie in the Seemandhra region where Congress has almost lost its foothold. This way, Jagan is also a threat to the Telugu Desam Party which could gain a few seats in the Seemandhra region. 
  • As in the case of other political parties in the state, while it is clear that the Telugu Desam has no strength in the Telangana region except for one or two constituencies, TRS will definitely gain ground and greater support and MIM will support Jagan, BJP still has to figure out where it stands while the CPI still stays a neutral player.
  • Eventually, the Congress' game-plan is to make Jagan win the upcoming state elections to rule the Seemandhra region (where it is almost ousted) whereas in the Telangana region, it has vested the onus on the Telangana Rashtra Samithi lead by K. Chandrasekhar Rao (famously known as KCR). 
  • Finally, the plan of the Congress is to form an alliance with YSRCP in the Seemandhra region and with the TRS in the Telangana region, therefore, retaining its foothold in both the regions despite the bifurcation.
If it wasn't for this gimmick, Jagan wouldn't have been out, neither would Mayawati nor would Lalu Prasad despite strong evidences with the CBI to prove them guilty. After all, we do have laws that the politicians make and break. And, we also have the Judiciary that remains a mere spectator!


Azhagu Arasu said...

Good one, politics is a funny game.

tnsatish said...

If the state is going to be separated before the elections, then Congress would be out from Seemandhra. After that, there is no meaning of having alliance with YSRCP. It would be fight between YSRCP and TDP only. If Jagan wins, there is no reason for him to have alliance with Congress.

If the state is not going to be separated before the elections, then in Telangana, Congress may win and if Jagan wins in Seemandhra, it would form alliance with him to form the government. After that, they can drag the issue of Telangana for another 5 years.

If Congress separates the state before the elections, there is no reason for any party to have alliance with Congress any time in the next few decades in Seemandhra.

tejaswini pagadala said...

@satish - The state will not be separated before the elections. Congress will postpone the issue of placing the resolution before the Parliament until April 2014. And, hence, the prediction.

Thanks for reading and commenting as well.

@Azhagu Arasu - Thanks for reading and commenting.

Srinidhi said...

Sigh. Complex stuff :(

So much rubbish in the air with him out on bail.

tejaswini pagadala said...

Nidhi, yeah, it is man! But, politics is simple if you understand the underlying foolishness of these yahoos (our so called leaders)!